The Patch

May 4, 2007

Scottish election update

Filed under: Politics — freshlysqueezedcynic @ 3:15 am

Strange, strange times up here, where the election is turning out to be a little more bizarre than previously thought. In marginal seats, whilst the Labour vote isn’t declining much (previous polls suggested it was in freefall, which seems to me to mean that a lot of the Labour vote was very undecided and swithering up until the election itself), the SNP vote is going up leaps and bounds. Meanwhile, some other seats are showing sharp falls in Labour votes and large rises in SNP votes. As such, the SNP is failing to gain some exceptionally close marginal seats, such as Cumbernauld & Kilsyth, but slashing the huge majorities of others, such as in Airdrie & Shotts. However, in all cases it seems to be failing to live up to the promises suggested in the opinion polls.

The analysis on TV suggests the reason for the greatly increased SNP vote is because the SSP aren’t standing anyone in the constituencies and a lot of the SSP vote is transferring to the SNP. I’m not so sure that the SNP and the SSP transfer as fully as the talking heads suggest (I, for instance, wouldn’t vote for the SNP, and damn well didn’t), and quite a few of those constituencies don’t neatly fit into that SSP/SNP transfer model.

Rumours continually pop up that the SNP are doing well on the regional vote, but we’ll see.

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